Correlation Causation Yada Yada

A friend posited on the SoMe this week that perhaps those who continue dismissing Covid as not a serious problem, as really only affecting the elderly and infirm, don’t happen to spend any time around the elderly or infirm. Maybe that’s generous, maybe not.

The case numbers, hospitalizations, and test positivity rate continue to rise here in Ohio. My advice is do what you gotta do to protect yourself. We’ve learned we can’t count on others to help us out in that regard. We’re definitely not all in this together. A sad but true reality.

Supply chain and labor shortages have been all over the headlines and even the memes. Blaming the extra unemployment / stimulus cash people have received during the pandemic and labeling them as lazy is a popular mantra. While that may be true in some cases, I haven’t been sure it’s even the main reason. For working parents, for example, just the cost and availability of childcare can be a huge deciding factor, especially if it’s a two-parent home. I was listening to a podcast – The Offer with Michael Glinter – in which the host discussed the subject.

Michael is a recruiter I’ve worked with, definitely one of the best. He said he’s been predicting labor shortages for some time, largely due to Baby Boomer retirements – which we are now seeing – and the smaller numbers of Gen X-ers, Millennials, and subsequent generations. He went on to say the pandemic accelerated retirements, leaving many positions open earlier than anyone expected. Whether their motivation was avoiding exposure to the virus, avoiding mask wearing and all the other preventive hoops we have to jump through, or just being done with the hassle of it all, many decided early retirement was a better personal option for them.

In addition, Covid has caused the deaths of many over age fifty. (Not sure of the accuracy of his data, but I think it’s reasonable to assume “a significant number”.) Some of those would have been working still, leading to more open positions. Check out the October 26 episode if you want to hear more.

All that to say … don’t necessarily believe what the media or politicians or your dear Aunt Sally tell you the facts mean.

Speaking of which, I continue to see people claiming vaccines have caused thousands upon thousands of deaths. The vaccines. Not Covid itself. They typically refer to VAERS, the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System to say, “See?!? All these people received a vaccine and then they died.”

Dear hearts, dear hearts, dear hearts.

That’s not how it works. That’s not how any of this works.

I try not to unleash the science nerd too often, I really do. But Science Nerd Jenn’s eyes have rolled to the back of her head and kept rolling right on out the door. I’m also, quite frankly, livid at the mis- and disinformation that continue to spread. Stick with me for just a minute and a quick story.

As a former mandated reporter to FAERS, the FDA’s equivalent to VAERS for drugs, medical nutritionals, biologics, etc., I have some insight on this one.

Anyone – absolutely any human being – can submit a report to FAERS or VAERS. That right there should make you raise an eyebrow at quick conclusions assumed from the raw data. The two systems are merely data collection systems, so that where there are large numbers of red flags, potential problems and their root causes can be investigated. All of that is good. We want to find problems and solve them as quickly as possible,

Some people because of their employment must report to these systems.

While working for big pharma, I was required by law to report any adverse events I learned of related to our products, whether I was at work or not. I was formally trained on what an adverse event is, what information to try to collect, and how to report.

Say, for example, you and I are at a mutual friend’s baby shower. A joyous social occasion, full of small talk, word games, and cupcakes. Knowing I work for the maker of Product X, you say, “Oh hey, I tried Product X the other day, and I blew chunks like I’d never blown chunks before.”

Blew chunks.

Called Edgar.

Upchucked.

Tossed your cookies.

Lost your lunch.

Worshiped the god of the porcelain throne.

Called Ralph on the big white phone.

Choose your favorite.

Someone else at our table chimes in, “You know when I was pregnant, I tried Product X and I blew chunks for three days.”

Yet another friend offers, “They gave my 98-year-old aunt Product X in the nursing home, and she died a week later.”

Three adverse events I had to report. And I was just there for the cake and to throw down on the word scramble.

Everyone please say it with me …

Correlation does NOT equal causation.

Peace, love, and antiseptic to you all. I’ll be somewhere chasing down my eyeballs.

I mean, I really like my eyeballs. They make it easier to drive.
Me waiting for common sense to become common?

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